Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres

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MLB

CHC Season record 89-73 W–L Team page

SD Season record 91-71 W–L Team page

KickoffSeptember 30, 2026 · 10:00 PM ET

VenuePetco Park

WatchPeacock, NBCSN

CHC 43%

SD 57%

Pick rating

🥇 Gold Pick

Requires at least 55% selected-outcome probability, +1.5% EV and a LeaderScore of 10.

Pregame Pick %

The estimated chance of the selected result.

Moneyline

The last pregame price for that result. Compare it with the pick's probability to understand value.

Profit $100

Net profit if a $100 stake wins at that price; a loss would cost the $100 stake.

EV (Expected Value)

Estimated average net return per $100 from the pick's probability and moneyline. Positive EV means the price is favorable under this estimate; negative EV means it is not.

Outcome lead

Up to 15 points for the probability gap over the next most likely result. Near zero means the outcomes are close; a higher number means a clearer pick.

LeaderScore

EV% plus Outcome lead. Higher scores appear first in Picks. A negative score means unfavorable EV outweighs the outcome lead; it does not mean the pick cannot win.

SD 57%

Moneyline-149

Profit $100$67.11

EV-4.74%

Outcome lead3.50

LeaderScore-1.24

San Diego is the lean at Petco, but Chicago’s stronger run production makes this more competitive than the opener suggests. The Cubs scored 850 runs with a .767 OPS over the regular season, and Kevin Gausman showed he can handle a game by allowing one earned run across seven innings in his Sept. 3 start. Still, the Padres bring a stronger run-prevention profile: their staff posted a 3.99 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, while Nick Pivetta was sharp in his latest listed outing, holding the Dodgers scoreless for 4⅔ innings with seven strikeouts. San Diego’s 8-0 series-opening win provides momentum and home-field comfort, though one result need not carry over. Expect a closer contest, with the Padres’ pitching and home setting giving them the narrow advantage.