Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox

Boston gets a narrow edge at Fenway, chiefly because Sonny Gray profiles as the stronger starter against Foster Griffin. Gray’s season line is a 2.82 ERA, and his recent four-start sample was 2.96; Griffin’s last four starts came with a 7.79 ERA, giving the Red Sox a meaningful chance to control the early innings. Boston has also produced more offense over the season, with a .721 OPS and 4.33 runs per game, compared with Cleveland’s .693 OPS and 4.15. Still, Cleveland arrives with momentum after taking the opener 3-2 and winning four straight, while its bullpen has been excellent lately. The Guardians can keep this tight if Griffin limits damage, but Gray and the home setting make Boston slightly more likely to win.