New York Mets vs Washington Nationals

Washington gets a narrow lean in this late-season matchup. The Nationals have scored 807 runs with a .744 OPS, well ahead of New York's 4.29 runs per game. Andrew Alvarez strengthens the home case: across four recent starts he has a 1.16 ERA, including three scoreless outings of at least six innings. New York still has a credible path. The Mets own a 4.14 team ERA and 1.29 WHIP, so their pitching can blunt a stronger lineup. Washington's bullpen is the concern, with a 5.88 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over the last 28 days, which means a close game can turn late. Alvarez and the Nationals' scoring give them only a small edge, leaving this a tight full-game contest.