Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves

Final

MLB

PHI Team page

4 — 3

ATL Team page

DateSeptember 30, 2026

VenueTruist Park

PHI 47%

ATL 53%

Pick rating

🥇 Gold Pick

Requires at least 55% selected-outcome probability, +1.5% EV and a LeaderScore of 10.

Pregame Pick %

The estimated chance of the selected result.

Moneyline

The last pregame price for that result. Compare it with the pick's probability to understand value.

Profit $100

Net profit if a $100 stake wins at that price; a loss would cost the $100 stake.

EV (Expected Value)

Estimated average net return per $100 from the pick's probability and moneyline. Positive EV means the price is favorable under this estimate; negative EV means it is not.

Outcome lead

Up to 15 points for the probability gap over the next most likely result. Near zero means the outcomes are close; a higher number means a clearer pick.

LeaderScore

EV% plus Outcome lead. Higher scores appear first in Picks. A negative score means unfavorable EV outweighs the outcome lead; it does not mean the pick cannot win.

ATL 53%

Moneyline-102

Profit $100$98.04

EV+4.96%

Outcome lead1.50

LeaderScore6.46

Atlanta gets a slim lean at home after taking the opener 5–3, with its full-season 3.63 ERA providing a modest foundation. Philadelphia’s road offense was weaker, posting a .663 OPS away, though that split is no guarantee of another quiet night. The Phillies have a strong counter in Cristopher Sanchez: his 18 wins and 231 strikeouts point to an excellent season, and he is listed as their probable starter. Atlanta lists Tyler Mahle, so the starting matchup could favor Philadelphia even as the Braves hold home advantage and momentum from Game 1. This is a close contest, not a confident Atlanta call; the Braves get only a slight edge, with Sanchez giving Philadelphia a very credible chance to level the series.

Team Form

Last 10 · latest first

Philadelphia Phillies

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Atlanta Braves

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Key Stats

2026 season · Team stats

Philadelphia Phillies

.240

AVG

.312

OBP

.707

OPS

182

4.04

ERA

1.29

WHIP

4.40

R/G

9.9

K/9

Atlanta Braves

.246

AVG

.309

OBP

.718

OPS

204

3.63

ERA

1.24

WHIP

4.58

R/G

8.4

K/9

Key Players

Philadelphia Phillies

.857OPS

.865OPS

.698OPS

1.82ERA

Atlanta Braves

.823OPS

.812OPS

.817OPS

2.55ERA

Boxscore

Scoring by period

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Total
PHI	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	4
ATL	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3

Team stats

PHI Stat ATL

4 R 3

12 H 9

0 E 0

3 HR 0

1 BB 6

9 SO 9

14 LOB 22

0 SB 2

3 ER 4

0 DP 0

PHI