Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves

Final

MLB

PHI Team page

2 — 6

ATL Team page

DateOctober 1, 2026

VenueTruist Park

PHI 45%

ATL 55%

Pick rating

🥇 Gold Pick

Requires at least 55% selected-outcome probability, +1.5% EV and a LeaderScore of 10.

Pregame Pick %

The estimated chance of the selected result.

Moneyline

The last pregame price for that result. Compare it with the pick's probability to understand value.

Profit $100

Net profit if a $100 stake wins at that price; a loss would cost the $100 stake.

EV (Expected Value)

Estimated average net return per $100 from the pick's probability and moneyline. Positive EV means the price is favorable under this estimate; negative EV means it is not.

Outcome lead

Up to 15 points for the probability gap over the next most likely result. Near zero means the outcomes are close; a higher number means a clearer pick.

LeaderScore

EV% plus Outcome lead. Higher scores appear first in Picks. A negative score means unfavorable EV outweighs the outcome lead; it does not mean the pick cannot win.

ATL 55%

Moneyline-111

Profit $100$90.09

EV+4.55%

Outcome lead2.50

LeaderScore7.05

Atlanta gets a modest lean at Truist Park, but this is close after the series split and Philadelphia’s extra-inning 4-3 win to force Game 3. The Braves finished 94-68, six wins better than the Phillies, and had the stronger regular-season profile on both sides: 742 runs with a .718 OPS and a 3.63 ERA, compared with Philadelphia’s 713 runs, .707 OPS and 4.04 ERA. That broader edge gives Atlanta a slight advantage over nine innings and beyond, especially with home field. Philadelphia has shown it can win a tight game and has enough power to change the result quickly, so the series result and narrow season gaps keep this from being a confident call. Expect another competitive contest; Atlanta is only a small favorite.

Team Form

Last 10 · latest first

Philadelphia Phillies

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Atlanta Braves

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Key Stats

Playoffs

Philadelphia Phillies

.231

AVG

.270

OBP

.665

OPS

4.85

ERA

1.31

WHIP

R/G

8.31

K/9

Atlanta Braves

.232

AVG

.339

OBP

.750

OPS

2.89

ERA

WHIP

4.67

R/G

8.04

K/9

Season Context

Playoffs

Philadelphia Phillies

These measures describe Playoffs. Compare like periods; they are sporting measures, not predicted outcomes.

SLG
Total bases per at-bat. Higher means more power.

Fielding %
Putouts plus assists divided by fielding chances. Higher means fewer errors per chance.

Run Differential
Runs scored minus runs allowed per game. Positive means the team outscores opponents.

.394

SLG

100.0%

Fielding %

-1.67

Run Differential

Season Context

Playoffs

Atlanta Braves

These measures describe Playoffs. Compare like periods; they are sporting measures, not predicted outcomes.

SLG
Total bases per at-bat. Higher means more power.

Fielding %
Putouts plus assists divided by fielding chances. Higher means fewer errors per chance.

Run Differential
Runs scored minus runs allowed per game. Positive means the team outscores opponents.

.411

SLG

100.0%

Fielding %

1.67

Run Differential

Key Players

Philadelphia Phillies

1.098OPS

1.051OPS

.900OPS

1.8ERA

Atlanta Braves

1.427OPS

1.227OPS

1.167OPS

3.52ERA

Boxscore

Scoring by period

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2
ATL	3	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	—	6

Team stats

PHI Stat ATL

2 R 6

6 H 6

0 E 0

0 HR 3

2 BB 5

6 SO 6

14 LOB 8

0 SB 0

6 ER 2

0 DP 0

PHI