Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees

Final

MLB

BOS Team page

2 — 9

NYY Team page

DateSeptember 30, 2026

VenueYankee Stadium

BOS 37%

NYY 63%

Pick rating 🥇

🥇 Gold Pick

Requires at least 55% selected-outcome probability, +1.5% EV and a LeaderScore of 10.

Pregame Pick %

The estimated chance of the selected result.

Moneyline

The last pregame price for that result. Compare it with the pick's probability to understand value.

Profit $100

Net profit if a $100 stake wins at that price; a loss would cost the $100 stake.

EV (Expected Value)

Estimated average net return per $100 from the pick's probability and moneyline. Positive EV means the price is favorable under this estimate; negative EV means it is not.

Outcome lead

Up to 15 points for the probability gap over the next most likely result. Near zero means the outcomes are close; a higher number means a clearer pick.

LeaderScore

EV% plus Outcome lead. Higher scores appear first in Picks. A negative score means unfavorable EV outweighs the outcome lead; it does not mean the pick cannot win.

NYY 63%

Moneyline-136

Profit $100$73.53

EV+9.32%

Outcome lead6.50

LeaderScore15.82

New York is the stronger side at home after setting the tone with a 9-0 Game 1, pairing a .375 team batting average with a shutout pitching performance. One game is a small sample, but the Yankees also held the season-long edge in run prevention, with a 3.24 ERA and 1.17 WHIP compared with Boston’s 3.54 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. The Red Sox have a credible counter in Sonny Gray, whose 2.72 ERA and 18 wins headline their pitching leaders. But New York averaged more runs per game over the regular season, and Max Fried is listed to start for the Yankees. Boston can respond, yet New York’s home advantage, stronger overall pitching numbers and commanding first-game performance make the Yankees more likely to win again.

Team Form

Last 10 · latest first

Boston Red Sox

LLWWLWLLLW

New York Yankees

WWLWWLWLLW

Key Stats

2026 season · Team stats

Boston Red Sox

.245

AVG

.319

OBP

.717

OPS

163

3.54

ERA

1.23

WHIP

4.25

R/G

8.7

K/9

New York Yankees

.235

AVG

.311

OBP

.720

OPS

223

3.24

ERA

1.17

WHIP

4.59

R/G

9.1

K/9

Key Players

Boston Red Sox

.901OPS

.773OPS

.761OPS

1.95ERA

New York Yankees

.897OPS

.831OPS

.768OPS

2.54ERA

Boxscore

Scoring by period

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
BOS	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2
NYY	0	0	0	1	1	6	1	0	—	9

Team stats

BOS Stat NYY

2 R 9

4 H 14

1 E 0

2 HR 2

2 BB 3

8 SO 10

9 LOB 13

0 SB 4

9 ER 2

0 DP 0

BOS

Boston Red Sox

Batting

Boston Red Sox Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG
Jahmai Jones DH Starter	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	21	.000	.000	.000
Adley Rutschman C Starter	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	18	.125	.125	.125
Willson Contreras 1B Starter	2-2	2	1	2	1	1	2	0	20	.333	.500	.833
Wilyer Abreu RF Starter	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	17	.143	.143	.143
Ceddanne Rafaela CF Starter	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	13	.000	.000	.000
Caleb Durbin 3B Starter	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	17	.000	.000	.000
Nick Sogard 2B Starter	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	0	1	10	.167	.167	.667
Trevor Story SS Starter	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	15	.167	.167	.333
Nate Eaton LF Starter	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	8	.500	.500	1.000
Jarren Duran LF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	.000	.250	.000

Pitching

Boston Red Sox Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
Sonny Gray P Starter	4.2	6	2	2	0	5	1	70-50	3.86	70
Erik Miller P	0.1	2	0	0	0	0	0	5-4	13.50	5
Garrett Crochet P	0.0	3	4	4	0	1	0	16-11	INF	16
Garrett Whitlock P	1.1	3	3	3	3	1	1	35-22	20.25	35
Alec Gamboa P	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	7-4	27.00	7
Aroldis Chapman P	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	0	14-10	0.00	14

NYY

New York Yankees

Batting

New York Yankees Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG
Ben Rice DH Starter	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	19	.556	.600	1.333
Cody Bellinger LF Starter	2-5	5	1	2	4	1	0	1	18	.333	.333	.667
Luis Garcia Jr. 1B Starter	3-5	5	1	3	1	1	0	1	19	.500	.500	1.000
Spencer Jones RF Starter	1-5	5	1	1	0	0	0	4	25	.250	.333	.250
George Lombard Jr. SS Starter	1-4	4	1	1	1	0	0	2	14	.500	.500	.500
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B Starter	2-3	3	2	2	0	0	1	0	17	.667	.750	.667
Trent Grisham CF Starter	2-3	3	1	2	0	0	1	0	11	.500	.600	.500
Austin Wells C Starter	1-3	3	1	1	2	0	0	0	13	.500	.375	.500
Ryan McMahon 3B Starter	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	1	9	.250	.400	.250
Paul Goldschmidt PH	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.333	.000
Jose Caballero 3B	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000

Pitching

New York Yankees Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
Max Fried P Starter	6.0	3	1	1	1	6	1	98-62	1.50	98
Will Warren P	1.2	1	1	1	0	1	1	19-14	5.40	19
Brent Headrick P	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3-2	0.00	3
David Bednar P	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	22-13	0.00	22

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees

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