Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto holds the clearer full-game edge at Rogers Centre despite a cold week. The Blue Jays are 77-82 and only 40-38 at home, but their staff has been far steadier than Cincinnati's, with a 3.92 season ERA against the Reds' 4.85. Jose Soriano's 3.72 ERA and 1.26 WHIP give Toronto a better probable starter than Nick Lodolo, who is 3-6 with a 5.04 ERA, even if Soriano's last five starts have been uneven. The bullpen gap is larger: Toronto's relievers have a 2.61 ERA over the last month, while Cincinnati's sit at 5.21. The Reds are also 36-42 on the road with a 5.40 away ERA and have allowed 6.64 runs per game over their last 28 days. Elly De La Cruz's hot stretch and Toronto's .652 OPS against left-handers keep this from being lopsided, as does Toronto's 1-5 run, but the pitching and home setting still favor the Blue Jays.