Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros

Final

MLB

CHW Team page

7 — 3

HOU Team page

DateSeptember 30, 2026

VenueDaikin Park

CHW 47%

HOU 53%

Pick rating

🥇 Gold Pick

Requires at least 55% selected-outcome probability, +1.5% EV and a LeaderScore of 10.

Pregame Pick %

The estimated chance of the selected result.

Moneyline

The last pregame price for that result. Compare it with the pick's probability to understand value.

Profit $100

Net profit if a $100 stake wins at that price; a loss would cost the $100 stake.

EV (Expected Value)

Estimated average net return per $100 from the pick's probability and moneyline. Positive EV means the price is favorable under this estimate; negative EV means it is not.

Outcome lead

Up to 15 points for the probability gap over the next most likely result. Near zero means the outcomes are close; a higher number means a clearer pick.

LeaderScore

EV% plus Outcome lead. Higher scores appear first in Picks. A negative score means unfavorable EV outweighs the outcome lead; it does not mean the pick cannot win.

HOU 53%

Moneyline-155

Profit $100$64.52

EV-12.81%

Outcome lead1.50

LeaderScore-11.31

Houston gets a narrow home-field lean, but the Game 1 result keeps this close: Chicago won 6-3 and leads the series 1-0. The strongest matchup signal is Hunter Brown, Houston’s probable starter, who held the White Sox to two earned runs over six innings in their September meeting. That is a meaningful counter to Chicago’s momentum, though Sean Burke’s 3.34 season ERA and 185 strikeouts show the Sox have a credible arm to answer. Chicago has already demonstrated it can score against Houston’s staff, while the Astros remain dangerous if they get more from their lineup than they did in the opener. Brown’s prior success and the home setting tilt the estimate slightly toward Houston, but Burke’s quality and Chicago’s Game 1 execution make a confident separation unwarranted.

Team Form

Last 10 · latest first

Chicago White Sox

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Houston Astros

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Key Stats

2026 season · Team stats

Chicago White Sox

.236

AVG

.320

OBP

.726

OPS

211

4.12

ERA

1.31

WHIP

4.79

R/G

8.4

K/9

Houston Astros

.242

AVG

.315

OBP

.733

OPS

226

4.45

ERA

1.34

WHIP

4.53

R/G

8.8

K/9

Key Players

Chicago White Sox

.837OPS

.825OPS

.685OPS

2.25ERA

Houston Astros

1.033OPS

.806OPS

.727OPS

1.01ERA

Boxscore

Scoring by period

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
CHW	4	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7
HOU	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	3

Team stats

CHW Stat HOU

7 R 3

8 H 5

0 E 2

1 HR 3

4 BB 1

13 SO 15

13 LOB 9

3 SB 0

3 ER 6

0 DP 0

CHW