Requires at least 55% selected-outcome probability, +1.5% EV and a LeaderScore of 10.
Pregame Pick %
The estimated chance of the selected result.
Moneyline
The last pregame price for that result. Compare it with the pick's probability to understand value.
Profit $100
Net profit if a $100 stake wins at that price; a loss would cost the $100 stake.
EV (Expected Value)
Estimated average net return per $100 from the pick's probability and moneyline. Positive EV means the price is favorable under this estimate; negative EV means it is not.
Outcome lead
Up to 15 points for the probability gap over the next most likely result. Near zero means the outcomes are close; a higher number means a clearer pick.
LeaderScore
EV% plus Outcome lead. Higher scores appear first in Picks. A negative score means unfavorable EV outweighs the outcome lead; it does not mean the pick cannot win.
ATL 43%
Moneyline+125
Profit $100$125.00
EV-3.25%
Outcome lead3.00
LeaderScore-0.25
Atlanta gets the home setting and arrives with the steadier defensive trend: it has conceded two goals across its last three matches, while Cincinnati gave up 15 in five away games over the last 56 days. Cincinnati still carries a credible scoring threat, with Kévin Denkey finding the net three times in two recent appearances. But that threat has not offset the visitors’ away defensive fragility. Atlanta has looked more secure lately, though its recent record also includes two draws in three matches, and the home advantage does not make a confident win call. The most reasonable lean is toward Atlanta, with a substantial chance of a draw and Cincinnati still capable of exploiting an open game.
These stats describe 2026 · Regular Season. Per-game values are averages; totals cover that period.
GOALS/G Goals scored per game over 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties are excluded. Higher means more scoring.
GA/G Goals allowed per game over 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties are excluded. Lower means fewer goals conceded.
SHOTS/G Shots per game across the full match, including extra time when played. Higher means more shooting volume.
SOT/G Shots on target per game across the full match, including extra time when played. Higher means more attempts on target.
SHOT ACCURACY% Shots on target divided by total shots across the full match. Higher means more accurate shooting.
POSSESSION % Average possession percentage across full matches. Above 50% means more possession than opponents on average; it does not by itself mean better chances.
PASS % Completed passes divided by attempted passes across full matches. Higher means more accurate passing.
CORNERS/G Corner kicks per game across full matches. Higher means more corner opportunities.
1.38
GOALS/G
1.69
GA/G
12.08
SHOTS/G
3.77
SOT/G
31.2%
SHOT ACCURACY%
49.0%
POSSESSION %
86.1%
PASS %
4.69
CORNERS/G
Season Context
2026 · Regular Season
FC Cincinnati
1.45
Shot Differential
Atlanta United FC
?
These measures describe 2026 · Regular Season. Compare like periods; they are sporting measures, not predicted outcomes.
Shot Differential Shots on target minus opponents’ shots on target per game. Positive means more shots on target.
