Requires at least 55% selected-outcome probability, +1.5% EV and a LeaderScore of 10.
Pregame Pick %
The estimated chance of the selected result.
Moneyline
The last pregame price for that result. Compare it with the pick's probability to understand value.
Profit $100
Net profit if a $100 stake wins at that price; a loss would cost the $100 stake.
EV (Expected Value)
Estimated average net return per $100 from the pick's probability and moneyline. Positive EV means the price is favorable under this estimate; negative EV means it is not.
Outcome lead
Up to 15 points for the probability gap over the next most likely result. Near zero means the outcomes are close; a higher number means a clearer pick.
LeaderScore
EV% plus Outcome lead. Higher scores appear first in Picks. A negative score means unfavorable EV outweighs the outcome lead; it does not mean the pick cannot win.
SKC 42%
Moneyline+135
Profit $100$135.00
EV-1.30%
Outcome lead2.75
LeaderScore1.45
Sporting Kansas City gets a narrow home-field lean, but Portland’s stronger season-long numbers keep this from being a confident call. Portland has 18 points and a +3 goal difference through 13 matches, compared with SKC’s 10 points and -11, so the Timbers have been the more reliable side overall. Their immediate form is a concern: they have lost all three matches in the last 28 days, scoring twice and conceding six. SKC has also been inconsistent, yet it has won two of its last four and scored nine in that span; André Luiz has supplied five goals in those four games. The home setting and SKC’s recent attacking spark offset Portland’s season advantage. A draw remains a substantial possibility, with SKC only a cautious favorite.
These stats describe 2026 · Regular Season. Per-game values are averages; totals cover that period.
GOALS/G Goals scored per game over 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties are excluded. Higher means more scoring.
GA/G Goals allowed per game over 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties are excluded. Lower means fewer goals conceded.
SHOTS/G Shots per game across the full match, including extra time when played. Higher means more shooting volume.
SOT/G Shots on target per game across the full match, including extra time when played. Higher means more attempts on target.
SHOT ACCURACY% Shots on target divided by total shots across the full match. Higher means more accurate shooting.
POSSESSION % Average possession percentage across full matches. Above 50% means more possession than opponents on average; it does not by itself mean better chances.
PASS % Completed passes divided by attempted passes across full matches. Higher means more accurate passing.
CORNERS/G Corner kicks per game across full matches. Higher means more corner opportunities.
1.38
GOALS/G
2.23
GA/G
12.69
SHOTS/G
4.69
SOT/G
37.0%
SHOT ACCURACY%
44.1%
POSSESSION %
85.2%
PASS %
4.23
CORNERS/G
Season Context
2026 · Regular Season
Portland Timbers
-0.46
Shot Differential
Sporting Kansas City
?
These measures describe 2026 · Regular Season. Compare like periods; they are sporting measures, not predicted outcomes.
Shot Differential Shots on target minus opponents’ shots on target per game. Positive means more shots on target.
