Nashville Predators vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Final

NHL

NSH Team page

4 — 5

TOR Team page

DateOctober 6, 2026

VenueScotiabank Arena

NSH 46%

TOR 54%

Pick rating

🥇 Gold Pick

Requires at least 55% selected-outcome probability, +1.5% EV and a LeaderScore of 10.

Pregame Pick %

The estimated chance of the selected result.

Moneyline

The last pregame price for that result. Compare it with the pick's probability to understand value.

Profit $100

Net profit if a $100 stake wins at that price; a loss would cost the $100 stake.

EV (Expected Value)

Estimated average net return per $100 from the pick's probability and moneyline. Positive EV means the price is favorable under this estimate; negative EV means it is not.

Outcome lead

Up to 15 points for the probability gap over the next most likely result. Near zero means the outcomes are close; a higher number means a clearer pick.

LeaderScore

EV% plus Outcome lead. Higher scores appear first in Picks. A negative score means unfavorable EV outweighs the outcome lead; it does not mean the pick cannot win.

TOR 54%

Moneyline-155

Profit $100$64.52

EV-11.16%

Outcome lead2.00

LeaderScore-9.16

Toronto gets a narrow lean from home ice and its stronger early shot profile: the Leafs are averaging 27.7 shots per game with a 50.9% shot share, compared with Nashville’s 23 shots and 43.4% share. Toronto’s penalty kill has been perfect through three games, a useful counter to a Predators power play converting 28.6% of its chances. Nashville has a credible route to the win, though: Juuse Saros has stopped 93.3% of shots in two starts, and the team has already shown it can win a close game. Toronto has only one win in its first three games, so the home advantage and shot edge are not decisive. Expect a close contest, with Toronto marginally more likely to prevail through overtime or a shootout.

Team Form

2026–27 · Recent Games · Regular Season

Nashville Predators

L W L

Toronto Maple Leafs

W L W L

Key Stats

2026–27 · Regular Season

Nashville Predators

2.33

GOALS/G

GA/G

23.67

SHOTS/G

9.9%

SHOOTING %

90.8%

SAVE %

PP GOALS

32.67

SA/G

47.6%

FACEOFF %

Toronto Maple Leafs

These stats describe 2026–27 · Regular Season. Per-game values are averages; totals cover that period.

GOALS/G
Goals scored per game, excluding the deciding shootout goal. Higher means more scoring.

GA/G
Goals allowed per game, excluding the deciding shootout goal. Lower means fewer goals allowed.

SHOTS/G
Shots on goal per game. Higher means more shooting volume.

SHOOTING %
Goals divided by shots on goal, excluding shootout attempts and the deciding shootout goal. Higher means more shots converted into goals.

SAVE %
Goalie saves divided by shots faced. Higher means a greater share of shots stopped.

PP GOALS
Total goals scored on the power play in this period.

SA/G
Opponent shots on goal per game. Lower means fewer shots faced.

FACEOFF %
Faceoffs won divided by faceoffs taken. Higher means more faceoffs won.

2.75

GOALS/G

2.75

GA/G

30.25

SHOTS/G

9.1%

SHOOTING %

89.5%

SAVE %

PP GOALS

26.25

SA/G

51.1%

FACEOFF %

Season Context

2026–27 · Regular Season

Nashville Predators

42.0%

Shot Share

37.5%

Power Play %

75.0%

Penalty Kill %

-2

Goal Diff

Toronto Maple Leafs

These measures describe 2026–27 · Regular Season. Compare like periods; they are sporting measures, not predicted outcomes.

Shot Share
Shots taken as a share of both teams’ shots. Above 50% means more shots than opponents.

Power Play %
Power-play goals per opportunity. Higher means more successful power plays.

Penalty Kill %
Opponent power-play opportunities without a goal. Higher means more successful penalty kills.

Goal Differential
Total goals scored minus goals allowed in the selected phase, including overtime goals and excluding the deciding shootout goal. Positive means the team outscores opponents; negative means it allows more goals than it scores.

53.5%

Shot Share

21.4%

Power Play %

90.9%

Penalty Kill %

Goal Diff

Key Players

2026–27 · Regular Season

Nashville Predators

90.8%SV%

Toronto Maple Leafs

90.4%SV%

Boxscore

Scoring by period

Team	P1	P2	P3	OT	Total
NSH	2	2	0	0	4
TOR	0	3	1	1	5

Team stats

NSH Stat TOR

16 BS 11

22 HT 20

5 TK 5

25 S 38

1 PPG 1

1 PPO 3

100.0 PCT 33.3

0 SHG 0

0 SOG 0

19 FW 34

35.8 FO% 64.2

20 GV 14

3 PN 1

6 PIM 2

NSH

Nashville Predators

Defenses

Nashville Predators Defenses
Player	BS	HT	TK	+/-	TOI	PPTOI	SHTOI	ESTOI	SHFT	YTDG	A	S	SM	GV
Jack Ahcan D	1	1	0	1	7:58	0:00	0:00	7:58	10	0	0	0	0	0
Nicolas Hague D	4	1	0	0	19:12	0:00	0:04	19:08	25	0	0	1	2	2
Roman Josi D	2	1	0	-1	27:06	1:42	2:56	22:28	30	1	1	1	0	1
Nick Perbix D	3	0	1	-1	20:49	0:00	2:31	18:18	26	0	0	1	2	2
Brady Skjei D	0	0	0	0	22:53	0:00	3:15	19:38	30	0	1	0	0	2
William Trudeau D	1	1	0	0	10:05	0:00	0:00	10:05	16	0	0	1	1	4
Adam Wilsby D	0	2	0	0	15:05	0:00	2:12	12:53	19	0	1	2	1	0

Forwards

Nashville Predators Forwards
Player	BS	HT	TK	+/-	TOI	PPTOI	SHTOI	ESTOI	SHFT	G	YTDG	A	S	SM	FW	FL	FO%	GV	PN	PIM
Mavrik Bourque C	0	1	0	1	19:48	0:00	0:38	19:10	27	0	0	1	1	0	2	8	20.0	0	0	0
Ross Colton C	0	2	0	-1	12:52	0:00	0:00	12:52	20	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.0	1	1	2
Jack Drury C	1	1	1	0	15:01	0:00	2:36	12:25	21	0	0	0	1	1	2	6	25.0	0	1	2
Adam Edstrom C	1	7	0	0	13:38	0:00	0:35	13:03	22	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.0	0	0	0
Filip Forsberg LW	1	1	2	1	21:00	1:42	0:00	19:18	28	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	0.0	0	0	0
Nils Hoglander LW	0	2	1	1	10:38	0:00	0:00	10:38	14	2	3	0	2	0	0	0	0.0	3	0	0
Alexander Kerfoot C	0	1	0	-2	18:50	0:00	2:01	16:49	28	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.0	0	0	0
Jonathan Marchessault RW	0	0	0	0	13:17	0:00	0:00	13:17	19	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.0	3	1	2
Ryan O'Reilly C	1	0	0	-2	24:13	1:42	2:48	19:43	34	0	0	1	1	1	8	8	50.0	0	0	0
Steven Stamkos C	1	0	0	0	19:43	1:42	0:00	18:01	26	2	3	0	3	4	3	1	75.0	1	0	0
Matthew Wood RW	0	1	0	0	16:54	1:42	2:12	13:00	22	0	0	1	1	2	4	9	30.8	0	0	0

Goalies

Nashville Predators Goalies
Player	GA	SA	SOS	SOSA	SV	SV%	ESSV	PPSV	SHSV	TOI	YTDG	PIM
Juuse Saros G	5	38	0	0	33	.868	28	5	0	64:35	0	0

TOR

Toronto Maple Leafs

Defenses

Toronto Maple Leafs Defenses
Player	BS	HT	+/-	TOI	PPTOI	SHTOI	ESTOI	SHFT	S	SM	GV	PN	PIM
Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	0	1	0	17:27	0:32	0:00	16:55	22	0	2	2	0	0
Jake McCabe D	0	4	0	19:59	0:00	1:42	18:17	25	1	0	1	0	0
Darren Raddysh D	2	0	0	25:51	4:28	0:00	21:23	27	2	2	2	0	0
Morgan Rielly D	1	0	0	20:39	0:59	0:00	19:40	25	2	0	0	1	2
Troy Stecher D	2	0	0	17:20	0:00	0:00	17:20	20	1	0	0	0	0
Chris Tanev D	3	1	1	18:38	0:00	1:42	16:56	25	0	0	1	0	0

Forwards

Toronto Maple Leafs Forwards
Player	BS	HT	TK	+/-	TOI	PPTOI	SHTOI	ESTOI	SHFT	G	YTDG	A	S	SM	FW	FL	FO%	GV
Teddy Blueger C	0	1	0	-1	9:53	0:00	0:00	9:53	13	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	100.0	0
Easton Cowan RW	0	3	0	0	16:01	1:13	0:00	14:48	19	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	0.0	1
Brandon Duhaime RW	0	2	1	0	11:22	0:00	1:42	9:40	14	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.0	0
Bo Groulx C	0	0	0	0	7:31	0:00	0:00	7:31	10	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	50.0	1
Kirill Marchenko RW	1	0	0	-1	21:35	4:16	0:00	17:19	23	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0.0	0
Auston Matthews C	1	1	2	2	25:09	4:13	0:00	20:56	23	1	2	3	4	3	6	7	46.2	3
Gavin McKenna LW	1	0	0	1	14:45	1:48	0:00	12:57	18	1	1	1	4	2	0	0	0.0	1
William Nylander RW	0	0	1	2	22:48	4:14	0:00	18:34	23	1	3	2	2	3	1	2	33.3	0
Nick Paul LW	0	3	0	-2	13:27	0:41	0:00	12:46	17	0	0	0	2	0	3	4	42.9	0
Jack Roslovic C	0	0	1	1	17:46	1:11	0:00	16:35	20	1	1	1	4	1	1	3	25.0	0
Colton Sissons C	0	4	0	0	13:39	0:00	1:42	11:57	17	0	1	0	2	0	3	1	75.0	1
John Tavares C	0	0	0	0	18:46	3:40	0:00	15:06	20	1	1	0	6	3	16	1	94.1	0

Goalies

Toronto Maple Leafs Goalies
Player	GA	SA	SOS	SOSA	SV	SV%	ESSV	PPSV	SHSV	TOI	YTDG	PIM
Anthony Stolarz G	4	25	0	0	21	.840	20	1	0	64:46	0	0