Ottawa Senators vs Boston Bruins

Final

NHL

OTT Team page

4 — 1

BOS Team page

DateOctober 5, 2026

VenueTD Garden

OTT 46%

BOS 54%

Pick rating

🥇 Gold Pick

Requires at least 55% selected-outcome probability, +1.5% EV and a LeaderScore of 10.

Pregame Pick %

The estimated chance of the selected result.

Moneyline

The last pregame price for that result. Compare it with the pick's probability to understand value.

Profit $100

Net profit if a $100 stake wins at that price; a loss would cost the $100 stake.

EV (Expected Value)

Estimated average net return per $100 from the pick's probability and moneyline. Positive EV means the price is favorable under this estimate; negative EV means it is not.

Outcome lead

Up to 15 points for the probability gap over the next most likely result. Near zero means the outcomes are close; a higher number means a clearer pick.

LeaderScore

EV% plus Outcome lead. Higher scores appear first in Picks. A negative score means unfavorable EV outweighs the outcome lead; it does not mean the pick cannot win.

BOS 54%

Moneyline-102

Profit $100$98.04

EV+6.94%

Outcome lead2.00

LeaderScore8.94

Boston gets a narrow lean from home ice and the steadier early-season sample: the Bruins are 2-1 through three games and have allowed 2.33 goals per game, while Ottawa's season is only one game old. Jeremy Swayman has been sharp, stopping 54 of 57 shots across two appearances, which gives Boston a credible edge if this stays tight. Ottawa nevertheless arrives off a 3-2 road win, with Thomas Chabot contributing a goal and assist; that is enough to keep the matchup close. The Senators' defensive depth could be tested with Artem Zub on injured reserve and Jake Sanderson day-to-day. Boston's power play has yet to score, so the home side is not a strong favorite. Expect a competitive game, with Boston's venue and small experience advantage tipping it narrowly.

Team Form

2026–27 · Recent Games · Regular Season

Ottawa Senators

W W

Boston Bruins

L L W W

Key Stats

2026–27 · Regular Season

Ottawa Senators

3.5

GOALS/G

1.5

GA/G

26.5

SHOTS/G

13.2%

SHOOTING %

93.8%

SAVE %

PP GOALS

SA/G

52.8%

FACEOFF %

Boston Bruins

These stats describe 2026–27 · Regular Season. Per-game values are averages; totals cover that period.

GOALS/G
Goals scored per game, excluding the deciding shootout goal. Higher means more scoring.

GA/G
Goals allowed per game, excluding the deciding shootout goal. Lower means fewer goals allowed.

SHOTS/G
Shots on goal per game. Higher means more shooting volume.

SHOOTING %
Goals divided by shots on goal, excluding shootout attempts and the deciding shootout goal. Higher means more shots converted into goals.

SAVE %
Goalie saves divided by shots faced. Higher means a greater share of shots stopped.

PP GOALS
Total goals scored on the power play in this period.

SA/G
Opponent shots on goal per game. Lower means fewer shots faced.

FACEOFF %
Faceoffs won divided by faceoffs taken. Higher means more faceoffs won.

2.25

GOALS/G

2.75

GA/G

24.75

SHOTS/G

9.1%

SHOOTING %

90.9%

SAVE %

PP GOALS

27.75

SA/G

50.4%

FACEOFF %

Season Context

2026–27 · Regular Season

Ottawa Senators

52.5%

Shot Share

0.0%

Power Play %

87.5%

Penalty Kill %

Goal Diff

Boston Bruins

These measures describe 2026–27 · Regular Season. Compare like periods; they are sporting measures, not predicted outcomes.

Shot Share
Shots taken as a share of both teams’ shots. Above 50% means more shots than opponents.

Power Play %
Power-play goals per opportunity. Higher means more successful power plays.

Penalty Kill %
Opponent power-play opportunities without a goal. Higher means more successful penalty kills.

Goal Differential
Total goals scored minus goals allowed in the selected phase, including overtime goals and excluding the deciding shootout goal. Positive means the team outscores opponents; negative means it allows more goals than it scores.

47.1%

Shot Share

0.0%

Power Play %

72.7%

Penalty Kill %

-2

Goal Diff

Key Players

2026–27 · Regular Season

Ottawa Senators

94.9%SV%

Boston Bruins

91.4%SV%

Boxscore

Scoring by period

Team	P1	P2	P3	Total
OTT	2	2	0	4
BOS	0	0	1	1

Team stats

OTT Stat BOS

10 BS 11

33 HT 33

4 TK 5

24 S 19

0 PPG 0

4 PPO 4

0.0 PCT 0.0

1 SHG 0

0 SOG 0

30 FW 32

48.4 FO% 51.6

14 GV 21

5 PN 5

18 PIM 18

OTT

Ottawa Senators

Defenses

Ottawa Senators Defenses
Player	BS	HT	TK	+/-	TOI	PPTOI	SHTOI	ESTOI	SHFT	YTDG	S	SM	GV	PN	PIM
Thomas Chabot D	1	1	1	1	24:13	0:11	1:21	22:41	32	1	1	1	2	1	2
Cameron Crotty D	0	1	0	0	10:56	0:04	0:53	9:59	18	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tyler Kleven D	2	0	1	2	23:21	0:04	3:35	19:42	31	0	1	0	2	0	0
Nikolas Matinpalo D	0	0	0	2	20:15	0:04	3:34	16:37	27	0	1	0	1	1	2
Jordan Spence D	2	0	0	1	24:49	0:10	2:11	22:28	32	0	1	2	0	0	0
Carter Yakemchuk D	0	0	0	0	14:58	1:55	0:00	13:03	23	0	1	1	1	0	0

Forwards

Ottawa Senators Forwards
Player	BS	HT	TK	+/-	TOI	PPTOI	SHTOI	ESTOI	SHFT	G	YTDG	A	S	SM	FW	FL	FO%	GV	PN	PIM
Michael Amadio RW	1	0	0	3	15:44	0:05	3:04	12:35	26	1	2	1	2	0	0	0	0.0	0	0	0
Drake Batherson RW	1	3	0	1	15:11	1:54	0:00	13:17	22	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	0.0	1	0	0
Nick Cousins C	0	4	0	0	10:58	0:07	0:19	10:32	19	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	0.0	0	1	10
Dylan Cozens C	1	5	0	0	18:38	1:42	0:08	16:48	24	0	0	0	4	1	6	4	60.0	2	0	0
William Eklund LW	0	0	0	0	17:53	0:04	0:00	17:49	23	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0.0	0	0	0
Warren Foegele LW	0	2	0	2	12:13	0:00	1:06	11:07	23	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.0	1	1	2
Claude Giroux RW	0	1	1	0	14:03	1:52	0:47	11:24	24	0	0	0	1	1	3	2	60.0	1	0	0
Stephen Halliday C	1	1	0	-1	9:39	0:04	0:00	9:35	17	0	1	0	0	0	3	5	37.5	0	0	0
Hayden Hodgson RW	0	3	0	-1	5:35	0:08	0:00	5:27	14	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.0	0	1	2
Shane Pinto C	0	6	0	1	17:56	0:12	2:42	15:02	27	0	0	1	2	2	7	9	43.8	0	0	0
Tim Stutzle C	1	1	0	3	18:56	1:53	3:24	13:39	29	2	2	1	3	0	11	11	50.0	1	0	0
Fabian Zetterlund LW	0	5	1	0	16:42	0:00	0:00	16:42	23	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.0	0	0	0

Goalies

Ottawa Senators Goalies
Player	GA	SA	SOS	SOSA	SV	SV%	ESSV	PPSV	SHSV	TOI	YTDG	PIM
Samuel Ersson G	1	9	0	0	8	.889	8	0	0	20:00	0	0
Linus Ullmark G	0	10	0	0	10	1.000	7	3	0	40:00	0	0

BOS

Boston Bruins

Defenses

Boston Bruins Defenses
Player	BS	HT	TK	+/-	TOI	PPTOI	SHTOI	ESTOI	SHFT	YTDG	S	SM	GV	PN	PIM
Will Borgen D	0	3	0	0	16:25	0:00	0:51	15:34	23	0	0	0	0	0	0
Frederic Brunet D	3	0	0	0	18:43	1:15	0:04	17:24	20	0	1	1	3	0	0
Connor Clifton D	1	1	0	0	19:17	0:00	1:13	18:04	23	0	1	0	0	0	0
Hampus Lindholm D	0	0	1	-2	18:46	2:06	0:53	15:47	24	1	2	0	3	0	0
Mason Lohrei D	2	0	0	-1	21:01	2:25	0:04	18:32	21	0	2	0	0	0	0
Nikita Zadorov D	0	4	0	-1	19:39	0:00	1:11	18:28	23	0	1	0	0	2	12

Forwards

Boston Bruins Forwards
Player	BS	HT	TK	+/-	TOI	PPTOI	SHTOI	ESTOI	SHFT	G	YTDG	S	SM	FW	FL	FO%	GV	PN	PIM
Morgan Geekie C	1	1	0	-2	20:58	4:04	0:04	16:50	20	0	0	3	3	2	1	66.7	2	0	0
James Hagens C	1	1	0	-1	13:55	2:14	0:10	11:31	17	1	2	2	1	0	0	0.0	1	1	2
Tanner Jeannot LW	0	5	0	1	10:47	0:00	0:00	10:47	15	0	1	1	0	1	2	33.3	0	0	0
Mark Kastelic C	0	4	0	0	10:19	0:00	0:00	10:19	16	0	1	0	1	1	1	50.0	0	0	0
Marat Khusnutdinov C	0	3	0	0	11:32	0:00	0:01	11:31	14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	2	0	0
Elias Lindholm C	0	1	0	-2	15:32	3:33	0:34	11:25	21	0	1	2	2	12	8	60.0	2	1	2
Fraser Minten C	0	1	0	-2	16:16	1:53	0:12	14:11	19	0	1	1	0	7	5	58.3	1	0	0
Casey Mittelstadt C	0	0	0	-1	12:56	1:42	0:00	11:14	18	0	0	0	0	2	1	66.7	2	0	0
David Pastrnak RW	0	5	0	-2	21:00	3:53	0:04	17:03	21	0	0	2	1	0	0	0.0	3	0	0
JJ Peterka RW	1	1	2	-2	15:20	2:07	0:00	13:13	20	0	2	0	0	0	0	0.0	1	0	0
Matthew Poitras C	0	2	0	1	11:28	0:00	0:04	11:24	16	0	0	0	2	2	5	28.6	0	1	2
Pavel Zacha C	2	1	2	-1	20:02	3:38	1:14	15:10	20	0	0	1	3	5	7	41.7	0	0	0

Goalies

Boston Bruins Goalies
Player	GA	SA	SOS	SOSA	SV	SV%	ESSV	PPSV	SHSV	TOI	YTDG	PIM
Jeremy Swayman G	4	24	0	0	20	.833	20	0	0	60:00	0	0