Minnesota Wild vs Buffalo Sabres

Final

NHL

MIN Team page

2 — 3

BUF Team page

DateOctober 6, 2026

VenueKeyBank Center

MIN 57%

BUF 43%

Pick rating 🥇

🥇 Gold Pick

Requires at least 55% selected-outcome probability, +1.5% EV and a LeaderScore of 10.

Pregame Pick %

The estimated chance of the selected result.

Moneyline

The last pregame price for that result. Compare it with the pick's probability to understand value.

Profit $100

Net profit if a $100 stake wins at that price; a loss would cost the $100 stake.

EV (Expected Value)

Estimated average net return per $100 from the pick's probability and moneyline. Positive EV means the price is favorable under this estimate; negative EV means it is not.

Outcome lead

Up to 15 points for the probability gap over the next most likely result. Near zero means the outcomes are close; a higher number means a clearer pick.

LeaderScore

EV% plus Outcome lead. Higher scores appear first in Picks. A negative score means unfavorable EV outweighs the outcome lead; it does not mean the pick cannot win.

MIN 57%

Moneyline-112

Profit $100$89.29

EV+7.89%

Outcome lead3.50

LeaderScore11.39

I give Minnesota a narrow edge, though Buffalo’s home rink keeps this close. The Wild have opened with two wins, averaging 3.5 goals while allowing just one per game; their 42.9% power play and perfect penalty kill have also created a useful special-teams advantage. Jesper Wallstedt has stopped 45 of 47 shots. Buffalo has comparable scoring at 3.5 goals per game and has generated a strong shot share, so its attack can trouble Minnesota. The concern is defensive execution: the Sabres have conceded nine goals through two games, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has allowed eight on 37 shots. A tighter performance from Buffalo is plausible, but Minnesota’s early goaltending and defensive results justify the lean.

Team Form

2026–27 · Recent Games · Regular Season

Minnesota Wild

L W W

Buffalo Sabres

W W L

Key Stats

2026–27 · Regular Season

Minnesota Wild

GOALS/G

1.67

GA/G

26.67

SHOTS/G

11.3%

SHOOTING %

93.3%

SAVE %

PP GOALS

SA/G

49.1%

FACEOFF %

Buffalo Sabres

These stats describe 2026–27 · Regular Season. Per-game values are averages; totals cover that period.

GOALS/G
Goals scored per game, excluding the deciding shootout goal. Higher means more scoring.

GA/G
Goals allowed per game, excluding the deciding shootout goal. Lower means fewer goals allowed.

SHOTS/G
Shots on goal per game. Higher means more shooting volume.

SHOOTING %
Goals divided by shots on goal, excluding shootout attempts and the deciding shootout goal. Higher means more shots converted into goals.

SAVE %
Goalie saves divided by shots faced. Higher means a greater share of shots stopped.

PP GOALS
Total goals scored on the power play in this period.

SA/G
Opponent shots on goal per game. Lower means fewer shots faced.

FACEOFF %
Faceoffs won divided by faceoffs taken. Higher means more faceoffs won.

3.33

GOALS/G

3.67

GA/G

27.33

SHOTS/G

12.2%

SHOOTING %

82.5%

SAVE %

PP GOALS

19.33

SA/G

49.4%

FACEOFF %

Season Context

2026–27 · Regular Season

Minnesota Wild

51.6%

Shot Share

36.4%

Power Play %

100.0%

Penalty Kill %

Goal Diff

Buffalo Sabres

These measures describe 2026–27 · Regular Season. Compare like periods; they are sporting measures, not predicted outcomes.

Shot Share
Shots taken as a share of both teams’ shots. Above 50% means more shots than opponents.

Power Play %
Power-play goals per opportunity. Higher means more successful power plays.

Penalty Kill %
Opponent power-play opportunities without a goal. Higher means more successful penalty kills.

Goal Differential
Total goals scored minus goals allowed in the selected phase, including overtime goals and excluding the deciding shootout goal. Positive means the team outscores opponents; negative means it allows more goals than it scores.

58.6%

Shot Share

0.0%

Power Play %

66.7%

Penalty Kill %

-1

Goal Diff

Key Players

2026–27 · Regular Season

Minnesota Wild

93.3%SV%

Buffalo Sabres

90.0%SV%

Boxscore

Scoring by period

Team	P1	P2	P3	OT	Total
MIN	0	2	0	0	2
BUF	0	0	2	1	3

Team stats

MIN Stat BUF

16 BS 16

26 HT 12

3 TK 3

20 S 28

1 PPG 0

4 PPO 2

25.0 PCT 0.0

0 SHG 0

0 SOG 0

26 FW 28

48.1 FO% 51.9

20 GV 18

2 PN 4

4 PIM 8

MIN

Minnesota Wild

Defenses

Minnesota Wild Defenses
Player	BS	TK	+/-	TOI	PPTOI	SHTOI	ESTOI	SHFT	YTDG	A	S	SM	GV	PN	PIM	PPA
Zach Bogosian D	1	0	1	14:12	0:00	1:45	12:27	18	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
Jonas Brodin D	3	0	-1	19:18	0:02	1:52	17:24	21	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	0
Quinn Hughes D	1	0	0	29:30	4:45	0:09	24:36	28	1	1	1	3	3	0	0	0
Daemon Hunt D	1	1	0	14:08	0:00	0:42	13:26	17	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0
Olli Maatta D	2	0	-1	19:18	0:09	1:20	17:49	21	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0
Jared Spurgeon D	0	0	-2	21:49	1:44	2:11	17:54	30	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	1

Forwards

Minnesota Wild Forwards
Player	BS	HT	TK	+/-	TOI	PPTOI	SHTOI	ESTOI	SHFT	G	YTDG	A	S	SM	FW	FL	FO%	GV	PPG	PPA
Matt Boldy LW	3	0	0	-2	23:24	4:45	1:37	17:02	26	0	0	0	7	0	1	2	33.3	2	0	0
Bobby Brink RW	1	1	0	-1	13:34	2:50	0:00	10:44	15	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0.0	2	0	0
Blake Coleman LW	0	4	0	-2	17:44	1:51	1:20	14:33	22	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	50.0	1	0	1
Joel Eriksson Ek C	1	1	0	-1	20:26	4:45	1:37	14:04	23	0	0	0	0	1	6	6	50.0	1	0	0
Nick Foligno LW	0	0	0	0	3:29	0:00	0:00	3:29	5	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	1	0	0
Marcus Foligno LW	0	7	0	1	13:25	0:00	0:45	12:40	16	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.0	1	0	0
Ryan Hartman RW	0	1	0	-1	13:40	1:51	0:00	11:49	16	0	0	0	0	0	4	4	50.0	1	0	0
Kirill Kaprizov LW	0	0	0	-1	24:58	4:45	0:00	20:13	22	0	3	0	3	0	0	1	0.0	0	0	0
Michael McCarron C	2	2	0	1	15:16	0:00	1:46	13:30	18	0	0	1	0	0	10	9	52.6	1	0	0
Maxim Shabanov RW	0	3	2	1	17:30	3:44	0:00	13:46	17	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	0.0	3	0	0
Yakov Trenin C	1	6	0	0	13:04	0:00	0:56	12:08	14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	1	0	0
Danila Yurov RW	0	1	0	0	14:21	1:49	0:00	12:32	17	1	1	0	2	0	4	5	44.4	0	1	0

Goalies

Minnesota Wild Goalies
Player	GA	SA	SOS	SOSA	SV	SV%	ESSV	PPSV	SHSV	TOI	YTDG	PIM
Jesper Wallstedt G	3	28	0	0	25	.893	21	2	2	64:22	0	0

BUF

Buffalo Sabres

Defenses

Buffalo Sabres Defenses
Player	BS	HT	TK	+/-	TOI	PPTOI	SHTOI	ESTOI	SHFT	G	YTDG	A	S	SM	GV	PN	PIM
Louis Crevier D	3	3	0	-1	14:19	0:00	3:01	11:18	19	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0
Rasmus Dahlin D	4	1	1	1	29:15	2:32	0:00	26:43	31	0	1	1	3	0	3	1	2
Zach Metsa D	1	1	0	0	10:44	0:00	3:35	7:09	12	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Owen Power D	0	0	1	2	28:21	1:28	3:12	23:41	32	1	1	1	2	3	2	0	0
Mattias Samuelsson D	1	1	0	0	22:41	0:00	3:22	19:19	24	0	1	0	2	2	1	0	0
Olen Zellweger D	1	0	0	1	15:35	0:41	0:00	14:54	20	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0

Forwards

Buffalo Sabres Forwards
Player	BS	HT	TK	+/-	TOI	PPTOI	SHTOI	ESTOI	SHFT	G	YTDG	A	S	SM	FW	FL	FO%	GV	PN	PIM
Zach Benson LW	0	0	0	1	20:41	2:44	2:02	15:55	26	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0.0	0	1	2
Justin Danforth RW	0	0	0	0	8:17	0:00	1:43	6:34	16	0	0	0	0	0	4	3	57.1	0	0	0
Josh Doan RW	1	1	0	-1	12:05	0:40	0:00	11:25	15	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.0	0	0	0
Konsta Helenius C	0	0	0	0	13:01	1:30	0:00	11:31	16	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	0	0	0
Peyton Krebs C	0	0	0	1	15:21	0:00	0:00	15:21	19	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	100.0	0	1	2
Jiri Kulich C	1	2	0	2	13:56	0:00	0:00	13:56	18	0	1	1	2	0	4	6	40.0	0	0	0
Beck Malenstyn LW	0	2	0	-1	8:28	0:00	2:05	6:23	13	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.0	0	0	0
Ryan McLeod C	1	0	0	0	14:15	1:30	2:11	10:34	22	0	0	0	1	1	7	2	77.8	3	1	2
Josh Norris C	0	0	0	0	16:44	1:16	2:27	13:01	22	0	0	0	0	3	3	5	37.5	1	0	0
Noah Ostlund C	1	0	0	1	20:39	2:30	1:17	16:52	25	1	1	0	2	1	5	4	55.6	0	0	0
Jack Quinn RW	1	1	0	1	21:45	2:39	1:28	17:38	25	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	0.0	2	0	0
Tage Thompson C	1	0	1	1	20:23	2:30	0:01	17:52	22	1	2	0	9	3	4	6	40.0	2	0	0

Goalies

Buffalo Sabres Goalies
Player	GA	SA	SOS	SOSA	SV	SV%	ESSV	PPSV	SHSV	TOI	YTDG	PIM
Colten Ellis G	2	20	0	0	18	.900	18	0	0	64:22	0	0

Minnesota Wild vs Buffalo Sabres

Minnesota Wild

Buffalo Sabres

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