Winnipeg Jets vs Pittsburgh Penguins

Final

NHL

WPG Team page

3 — 2

PIT Team page

DateOctober 5, 2026

VenuePPG Paints Arena

WPG 43%

PIT 57%

Pick rating

🥇 Gold Pick

Requires at least 55% selected-outcome probability, +1.5% EV and a LeaderScore of 10.

Pregame Pick %

The estimated chance of the selected result.

Moneyline

The last pregame price for that result. Compare it with the pick's probability to understand value.

Profit $100

Net profit if a $100 stake wins at that price; a loss would cost the $100 stake.

EV (Expected Value)

Estimated average net return per $100 from the pick's probability and moneyline. Positive EV means the price is favorable under this estimate; negative EV means it is not.

Outcome lead

Up to 15 points for the probability gap over the next most likely result. Near zero means the outcomes are close; a higher number means a clearer pick.

LeaderScore

EV% plus Outcome lead. Higher scores appear first in Picks. A negative score means unfavorable EV outweighs the outcome lead; it does not mean the pick cannot win.

PIT 57%

Moneyline-180

Profit $100$55.56

EV-11.33%

Outcome lead3.50

LeaderScore-7.83

Pittsburgh has the stronger early profile and a meaningful home-ice advantage: the Penguins are 2-0, have outscored opponents 13-5, are generating 34 shots per game, and have killed every penalty. Their 19.1% shooting rate is likely to cool, and allowing five goals in their home opener shows there is still defensive volatility, so a blowout is not the expectation. Winnipeg has credible scoring threats; Kyle Connor has five points already, and the Jets have converted four of seven power plays. The central concern is in goal, with Connor Hellebuyck on injured reserve. Pittsburgh’s stronger results and home setting make it the likelier winner, though Winnipeg’s power play can keep the game close.

Team Form

2026–27 · Recent Games · Regular Season

Winnipeg Jets

W W L

Pittsburgh Penguins

L W W

Key Stats

2026–27 · Regular Season

Winnipeg Jets

GOALS/G

2.67

GA/G

SHOTS/G

9.7%

SHOOTING %

91.7%

SAVE %

PP GOALS

SA/G

44.3%

FACEOFF %

Pittsburgh Penguins

These stats describe 2026–27 · Regular Season. Per-game values are averages; totals cover that period.

GOALS/G
Goals scored per game, excluding the deciding shootout goal. Higher means more scoring.

GA/G
Goals allowed per game, excluding the deciding shootout goal. Lower means fewer goals allowed.

SHOTS/G
Shots on goal per game. Higher means more shooting volume.

SHOOTING %
Goals divided by shots on goal, excluding shootout attempts and the deciding shootout goal. Higher means more shots converted into goals.

SAVE %
Goalie saves divided by shots faced. Higher means a greater share of shots stopped.

PP GOALS
Total goals scored on the power play in this period.

SA/G
Opponent shots on goal per game. Lower means fewer shots faced.

FACEOFF %
Faceoffs won divided by faceoffs taken. Higher means more faceoffs won.

GOALS/G

2.67

GA/G

SHOTS/G

15.2%

SHOOTING %

89.6%

SAVE %

PP GOALS

25.67

SA/G

45.8%

FACEOFF %

Season Context

2026–27 · Regular Season

Winnipeg Jets

49.2%

Shot Share

50.0%

Power Play %

88.9%

Penalty Kill %

Goal Diff

Pittsburgh Penguins

These measures describe 2026–27 · Regular Season. Compare like periods; they are sporting measures, not predicted outcomes.

Shot Share
Shots taken as a share of both teams’ shots. Above 50% means more shots than opponents.

Power Play %
Power-play goals per opportunity. Higher means more successful power plays.

Penalty Kill %
Opponent power-play opportunities without a goal. Higher means more successful penalty kills.

Goal Differential
Total goals scored minus goals allowed in the selected phase, including overtime goals and excluding the deciding shootout goal. Positive means the team outscores opponents; negative means it allows more goals than it scores.

56.3%

Shot Share

40.0%

Power Play %

100.0%

Penalty Kill %

Goal Diff

Key Players

2026–27 · Regular Season

Winnipeg Jets

93.5%SV%

Pittsburgh Penguins

90.9%SV%

Boxscore

Scoring by period

Team	P1	P2	P3	Total
WPG	0	0	3	3
PIT	0	1	1	2

Team stats

WPG Stat PIT

16 BS 11

23 HT 11

3 TK 5

33 S 31

0 PPG 0

1 PPO 2

0.0 PCT 0.0

0 SHG 0

0 SOG 0

29 FW 35

45.3 FO% 54.7

20 GV 22

2 PN 1

4 PIM 2

WPG

Winnipeg Jets

Defenses

Winnipeg Jets Defenses
Player	BS	HT	TK	+/-	TOI	PPTOI	SHTOI	ESTOI	SHFT	YTDG	A	S	SM	GV	PN	PIM
Dylan DeMelo D	3	1	1	1	22:24	0:00	1:51	20:33	29	1	1	1	1	2	0	0
Mario Ferraro D	1	1	0	0	16:53	0:00	1:49	15:04	23	1	0	2	0	0	0	0
Josh Morrissey D	0	0	0	1	23:50	1:35	0:00	22:15	29	0	1	0	0	2	1	2
Neal Pionk D	1	1	1	0	20:04	0:25	2:11	17:28	27	0	0	2	3	2	0	0
Dylan Samberg D	4	1	0	0	21:03	0:00	2:09	18:54	28	0	0	1	2	0	0	0
Jack St. Ivany D	1	1	1	0	14:10	0:00	0:00	14:10	20	0	0	0	0	2	0	0

Forwards

Winnipeg Jets Forwards
Player	BS	HT	+/-	TOI	PPTOI	SHTOI	ESTOI	SHFT	G	YTDG	A	S	SM	FW	FL	FO%	GV	PN	PIM
Morgan Barron C	0	6	0	15:55	0:00	2:22	13:33	21	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	50.0	1	0	0
Viggo Bjorck C	0	0	-1	13:30	0:36	0:06	12:48	18	0	0	0	1	0	2	6	25.0	0	1	2
Kyle Connor LW	1	0	-1	21:59	1:26	0:28	20:05	23	0	3	0	6	1	0	0	0.0	0	0	0
Alex Iafallo LW	0	1	2	10:24	0:37	0:39	9:08	15	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	0.0	1	0	0
Cole Koepke LW	1	0	0	8:29	0:00	1:10	7:19	15	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0.0	0	0	0
Brad Lambert C	0	0	0	12:43	0:00	0:00	12:43	17	0	0	0	0	2	2	1	66.7	1	0	0
Adam Lowry C	1	5	2	15:49	0:00	2:10	13:39	21	1	1	0	1	0	5	9	35.7	0	0	0
Vladislav Namestnikov C	1	2	0	11:04	0:37	1:05	9:22	18	0	0	0	4	0	4	6	40.0	1	0	0
Cole Perfetti C	0	3	-1	19:59	1:23	0:00	18:36	22	1	2	0	4	0	0	1	0.0	0	0	0
Isak Rosen RW	0	0	2	12:05	0:34	0:00	11:31	17	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.0	4	0	0
Mark Scheifele C	1	1	0	21:18	1:24	0:00	19:54	22	0	0	0	3	1	13	10	56.5	2	0	0
Gabriel Vilardi C	1	0	0	14:21	1:23	0:00	12:58	16	0	0	0	3	1	2	1	66.7	0	0	0

Goalies

Winnipeg Jets Goalies
Player	GA	SA	SOS	SOSA	SV	SV%	ESSV	PPSV	SHSV	TOI	YTDG	PIM
Clay Stevenson G	2	31	0	0	29	.935	27	2	0	60:00	0	0

PIT

Pittsburgh Penguins

Defenses

Pittsburgh Penguins Defenses
Player	BS	HT	TK	+/-	TOI	PPTOI	SHTOI	ESTOI	SHFT	G	YTDG	A	S	SM	GV
Declan Carlile D	3	0	1	1	18:23	0:00	1:26	16:57	23	1	2	1	3	3	0
Samuel Girard D	2	1	0	-2	17:12	0:03	0:34	16:35	20	0	1	0	1	1	2
Erik Karlsson D	0	1	0	0	24:00	2:34	0:00	21:26	25	0	0	1	1	3	3
Kaedan Korczak D	1	0	0	-1	13:22	0:00	0:33	12:49	18	0	0	0	0	1	1
Kris Letang D	0	1	1	0	23:23	1:20	0:04	21:59	25	0	0	0	2	1	3
Trevor van Riemsdyk D	1	0	0	0	19:40	0:00	1:23	18:17	23	0	0	0	0	0	0

Forwards

Pittsburgh Penguins Forwards
Player	BS	HT	TK	+/-	TOI	PPTOI	SHTOI	ESTOI	SHFT	G	YTDG	A	S	SM	FW	FL	FO%	GV	PN	PIM
Egor Chinakhov RW	0	0	1	-1	14:00	1:48	0:00	12:12	21	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	0	0	0
Sidney Crosby C	0	1	1	-1	19:27	2:10	0:00	17:17	24	0	0	0	5	0	15	6	71.4	4	0	0
Connor Dewar C	0	2	0	0	14:46	0:00	1:25	13:21	22	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0.0	1	0	0
Ben Kindel C	0	1	0	1	18:37	2:08	1:28	15:01	21	1	2	1	2	0	6	4	60.0	1	0	0
Ville Koivunen RW	1	0	0	1	13:30	0:43	0:00	12:47	17	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.0	1	0	0
Andrei Kuzmenko LW	0	1	0	1	12:17	1:47	0:00	10:30	16	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.0	0	0	0
Hendrix Lapierre C	1	1	1	0	10:58	0:58	0:00	10:00	19	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	50.0	1	0	0
Blake Lizotte C	1	0	0	0	12:12	0:00	0:00	12:12	22	0	0	0	2	0	6	7	46.2	0	1	2
Evgeni Malkin C	1	0	0	-1	17:47	1:59	0:00	15:48	20	0	2	0	4	1	0	0	0.0	0	0	0
Tommy Novak C	0	1	0	-1	15:12	2:10	0:03	12:59	20	0	2	0	2	0	6	9	40.0	3	0	0
Rickard Rakell RW	0	1	0	-1	20:37	2:20	0:32	17:45	26	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	0.0	0	0	0
Nick Robertson LW	0	0	0	-1	15:14	0:00	0:32	14:42	21	0	2	0	1	2	1	0	100.0	2	0	0

Goalies

Pittsburgh Penguins Goalies
Player	GA	SA	SOS	SOSA	SV	SV%	ESSV	PPSV	SHSV	TOI	YTDG	PIM
Sergei Murashov G	3	33	0	0	30	.909	28	1	1	57:23	0	0

Winnipeg Jets vs Pittsburgh Penguins

Winnipeg Jets

Pittsburgh Penguins

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