Requires at least 55% selected-outcome probability, +1.5% EV and a LeaderScore of 10.
Pregame Pick %
The estimated chance of the selected result.
Moneyline
The last pregame price for that result. Compare it with the pick's probability to understand value.
Profit $100
Net profit if a $100 stake wins at that price; a loss would cost the $100 stake.
EV (Expected Value)
Estimated average net return per $100 from the pick's probability and moneyline. Positive EV means the price is favorable under this estimate; negative EV means it is not.
Outcome lead
Up to 15 points for the probability gap over the next most likely result. Near zero means the outcomes are close; a higher number means a clearer pick.
LeaderScore
EV% plus Outcome lead. Higher scores appear first in Picks. A negative score means unfavorable EV outweighs the outcome lead; it does not mean the pick cannot win.
MIA 40%
Moneyline-240
Profit $100$41.67
EV-43.33%
Outcome lead1.50
LeaderScore-41.83
Inter Miami get a modest home lean, but a draw is very live. They have scored 25 goals in 12 league matches, nearly twice D.C. United’s 13 in 11, and Messi’s nine goals over Miami’s last nine league games give the hosts the most convincing attacking threat. The defensive numbers temper that advantage: Miami have conceded 22, while their recent run includes five draws in nine matches and 18 goals allowed. D.C. are also draw-prone, with six ties in 11, and their recent eight-game stretch brought just one win alongside 13 goals conceded. That points to Miami having the better chance to edge a potentially open game, though neither side has shown dependable results. I favor Miami narrowly; a stalemate remains a close alternative.
These stats describe 2026 · Regular Season. Per-game values are averages; totals cover that period.
GOALS/G Goals scored per game over 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties are excluded. Higher means more scoring.
GA/G Goals allowed per game over 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties are excluded. Lower means fewer goals conceded.
SHOTS/G Shots per game across the full match, including extra time when played. Higher means more shooting volume.
SOT/G Shots on target per game across the full match, including extra time when played. Higher means more attempts on target.
SHOT ACCURACY% Shots on target divided by total shots across the full match. Higher means more accurate shooting.
POSSESSION % Average possession percentage across full matches. Above 50% means more possession than opponents on average; it does not by itself mean better chances.
PASS % Completed passes divided by attempted passes across full matches. Higher means more accurate passing.
CORNERS/G Corner kicks per game across full matches. Higher means more corner opportunities.
2.08
GOALS/G
1.83
GA/G
13.92
SHOTS/G
5.08
SOT/G
36.5%
SHOT ACCURACY%
55.4%
POSSESSION %
87.8%
PASS %
4.42
CORNERS/G
Season Context
2026 · Regular Season
D.C. United
-0.27
Shot Differential
78.7%
Pass Completion %
Inter Miami CF
?
These measures describe 2026 · Regular Season. Compare like periods; they are sporting measures, not predicted outcomes.
Shot Differential Shots on target minus opponents’ shots on target per game. Positive means more shots on target.
Pass Completion % Accurate passes as a share of all passes. Higher means more completed passes.
