Ottawa Senators vs Detroit Red Wings

Final

NHL

OTT Team page

3 — 5

DET Team page

DateOctober 6, 2026

VenueLittle Caesars Arena

OTT 53%

DET 47%

Pick rating

🥇 Gold Pick

Requires at least 55% selected-outcome probability, +1.5% EV and a LeaderScore of 10.

Pregame Pick %

The estimated chance of the selected result.

Moneyline

The last pregame price for that result. Compare it with the pick's probability to understand value.

Profit $100

Net profit if a $100 stake wins at that price; a loss would cost the $100 stake.

EV (Expected Value)

Estimated average net return per $100 from the pick's probability and moneyline. Positive EV means the price is favorable under this estimate; negative EV means it is not.

Outcome lead

Up to 15 points for the probability gap over the next most likely result. Near zero means the outcomes are close; a higher number means a clearer pick.

LeaderScore

EV% plus Outcome lead. Higher scores appear first in Picks. A negative score means unfavorable EV outweighs the outcome lead; it does not mean the pick cannot win.

OTT 53%

Moneyline-102

Profit $100$98.04

EV+4.96%

Outcome lead1.50

LeaderScore6.46

Ottawa gets a narrow lean after opening 2-0 while Detroit is 0-2, with the Senators averaging 3.5 goals and allowing 1.5 compared with Detroit’s 1.0 scored and 2.5 allowed. Linus Ullmark has stopped 37 of 39 shots, but his day-to-day status and Jake Sanderson’s absence temper Ottawa’s advantage. Detroit has generated more shots and controlled a slightly larger share, so its poor 3.5% shooting rate could improve; home ice also keeps the Red Wings very much in it. However, Dylan Larkin remains on injured reserve, and Detroit’s early scoring and penalty-kill results have been weak. Expect a close contest, with Ottawa only a slight preference.

Team Form

2026–27 · Recent Games · Regular Season

Ottawa Senators

L W W

Detroit Red Wings

W L L

Key Stats

2026–27 · Regular Season

Ottawa Senators

3.33

GOALS/G

2.67

GA/G

SHOTS/G

12.8%

SHOOTING %

91.6%

SAVE %

PP GOALS

SA/G

52.7%

FACEOFF %

Detroit Red Wings

These stats describe 2026–27 · Regular Season. Per-game values are averages; totals cover that period.

GOALS/G
Goals scored per game, excluding the deciding shootout goal. Higher means more scoring.

GA/G
Goals allowed per game, excluding the deciding shootout goal. Lower means fewer goals allowed.

SHOTS/G
Shots on goal per game. Higher means more shooting volume.

SHOOTING %
Goals divided by shots on goal, excluding shootout attempts and the deciding shootout goal. Higher means more shots converted into goals.

SAVE %
Goalie saves divided by shots faced. Higher means a greater share of shots stopped.

PP GOALS
Total goals scored on the power play in this period.

SA/G
Opponent shots on goal per game. Lower means fewer shots faced.

FACEOFF %
Faceoffs won divided by faceoffs taken. Higher means more faceoffs won.

2.33

GOALS/G

2.67

GA/G

SHOTS/G

7.5%

SHOOTING %

90.3%

SAVE %

PP GOALS

24.33

SA/G

54.4%

FACEOFF %

Season Context

2026–27 · Regular Season

Ottawa Senators

48.1%

Shot Share

7.7%

Power Play %

76.9%

Penalty Kill %

Goal Diff

Detroit Red Wings

These measures describe 2026–27 · Regular Season. Compare like periods; they are sporting measures, not predicted outcomes.

Shot Share
Shots taken as a share of both teams’ shots. Above 50% means more shots than opponents.

Power Play %
Power-play goals per opportunity. Higher means more successful power plays.

Penalty Kill %
Opponent power-play opportunities without a goal. Higher means more successful penalty kills.

Goal Differential
Total goals scored minus goals allowed in the selected phase, including overtime goals and excluding the deciding shootout goal. Positive means the team outscores opponents; negative means it allows more goals than it scores.

56.0%

Shot Share

25.0%

Power Play %

61.5%

Penalty Kill %

-1

Goal Diff

Key Players

2026–27 · Regular Season

Ottawa Senators

94.9%SV%

Detroit Red Wings

90.3%SV%

Boxscore

Scoring by period

Team	P1	P2	P3	Total
OTT	1	1	1	3
DET	2	2	1	5

Team stats

OTT Stat DET

16 BS 16

30 HT 26

5 TK 6

25 S 36

1 PPG 2

5 PPO 5

20.0 PCT 40.0

0 SHG 0

0 SOG 0

32 FW 29

52.5 FO% 47.5

15 GV 17

9 PN 9

18 PIM 18

OTT

Ottawa Senators

Defenses

Ottawa Senators Defenses
Player	BS	HT	TK	+/-	TOI	PPTOI	SHTOI	ESTOI	SHFT	YTDG	A	S	SM	GV	PN	PIM
Thomas Chabot D	3	1	1	0	26:16	3:43	4:40	17:53	32	1	0	5	0	0	0	0
Cameron Crotty D	0	0	0	1	10:51	0:00	0:00	10:51	18	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
Tyler Kleven D	5	1	0	-1	18:58	0:00	3:55	15:03	27	0	0	2	0	2	0	0
Nikolas Matinpalo D	4	1	0	0	16:35	0:00	2:39	13:56	23	0	0	2	1	1	1	2
Jordan Spence D	1	1	0	-1	22:29	0:57	4:58	16:34	28	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Carter Yakemchuk D	0	0	1	-1	17:07	4:31	0:00	12:36	24	0	1	2	1	2	0	0

Forwards

Ottawa Senators Forwards
Player	BS	HT	TK	+/-	TOI	PPTOI	SHTOI	ESTOI	SHFT	G	YTDG	A	S	SM	FW	FL	FO%	GV	PN	PIM
Michael Amadio RW	0	0	0	-1	15:39	0:00	2:51	12:48	22	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0.0	2	0	0
Drake Batherson RW	0	5	0	0	17:07	4:45	0:00	12:22	25	1	2	1	2	1	0	2	0.0	2	2	4
Nick Cousins C	0	4	0	-2	6:02	0:00	0:00	6:02	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	0	1	2
Dylan Cozens C	1	4	0	0	21:29	4:51	0:50	15:48	24	0	0	0	1	2	10	7	58.8	2	0	0
William Eklund LW	1	0	1	1	20:09	4:51	0:15	15:03	22	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	0.0	0	0	0
Warren Foegele LW	0	0	0	-1	8:51	0:00	1:05	7:46	11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	0	0	0
Claude Giroux RW	0	0	0	0	15:28	3:35	1:17	10:36	23	0	0	0	0	1	7	6	53.8	0	0	0
Ridly Greig C	0	2	0	0	13:10	0:44	1:33	10:53	22	0	0	1	2	1	2	0	100.0	0	3	6
Stephen Halliday C	0	0	1	-1	10:33	2:56	0:00	7:37	14	0	1	0	2	0	3	5	37.5	1	0	0
Shane Pinto C	0	2	1	0	16:37	2:59	3:56	9:42	24	0	0	0	1	0	5	7	41.7	0	2	4
Tim Stutzle C	0	5	0	0	21:37	4:46	4:47	12:04	27	1	3	1	2	0	5	2	71.4	1	0	0
Fabian Zetterlund LW	1	4	0	1	15:00	2:35	0:00	12:25	18	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.0	1	0	0

Goalies

Ottawa Senators Goalies
Player	GA	SA	SOS	SOSA	SV	SV%	ESSV	PPSV	SHSV	TOI	YTDG	PIM
Samuel Ersson G	4	35	0	0	31	.886	23	6	2	57:56	0	0

DET

Detroit Red Wings

Defenses

Detroit Red Wings Defenses
Player	BS	HT	TK	+/-	TOI	PPTOI	SHTOI	ESTOI	SHFT	G	YTDG	A	S	SM	GV	PN	PIM
Ben Chiarot D	1	2	0	-1	18:14	0:06	2:44	15:24	23	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	4
Justin Faulk D	0	0	1	3	18:21	2:34	2:47	13:00	24	1	1	1	3	2	0	0	0
Albert Johansson D	2	0	0	-1	17:00	0:00	3:27	13:33	23	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
Anton Johansson D	1	1	0	1	17:13	0:00	3:26	13:47	20	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2
Axel Sandin-Pellikka D	2	0	1	-1	11:27	2:09	0:00	9:18	15	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0
Moritz Seider D	0	3	0	-1	24:01	6:25	2:47	14:49	28	0	0	0	3	1	2	1	2
William Wallinder D	1	0	0	2	9:07	0:00	1:17	7:50	15	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0

Forwards

Detroit Red Wings Forwards
Player	BS	HT	TK	+/-	TOI	PPTOI	SHTOI	ESTOI	SHFT	G	YTDG	A	S	SM	FW	FL	FO%	GV	PN	PIM
Viktor Arvidsson LW	0	0	0	0	17:20	5:00	0:00	12:20	19	1	2	1	3	1	0	2	0.0	1	0	0
Michael Brandsegg-Nygard RW	0	5	1	0	12:37	0:00	0:00	12:37	18	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.0	0	0	0
Andrew Copp C	1	1	0	0	18:24	2:02	3:31	12:51	29	0	0	0	3	0	13	11	54.2	3	1	2
Nate Danielson C	0	0	0	1	8:02	0:00	0:00	8:02	13	0	0	1	1	0	4	3	57.1	0	0	0
Alex DeBrincat RW	1	0	0	2	18:45	5:54	0:01	12:50	20	2	2	1	3	0	0	0	0.0	1	2	4
Emmitt Finnie C	1	1	0	0	18:17	2:04	2:46	13:27	23	0	1	0	2	0	1	9	10.0	0	0	0
Keegan Kolesar RW	3	6	0	0	15:07	0:00	2:12	12:55	21	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.0	2	1	2
Dylan Larkin C	1	0	0	0	20:41	6:01	2:38	12:02	26	1	1	1	4	3	11	6	64.7	4	1	2
Carter Mazur LW	0	1	0	1	7:25	0:00	0:00	7:25	12	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.0	0	0	0
Michael Rasmussen C	1	6	2	0	20:05	2:14	4:11	13:40	28	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.0	0	0	0
Lucas Raymond LW	1	0	1	-1	19:47	6:01	1:05	12:41	21	0	0	3	6	1	0	0	0.0	0	0	0

Goalies

Detroit Red Wings Goalies
Player	GA	SA	SOS	SOSA	SV	SV%	ESSV	PPSV	SHSV	TOI	YTDG	PIM
John Gibson G	3	25	0	0	22	.880	16	4	2	59:54	0	0