Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Final

MLB

ATL Team page

3 — 5

LAD Team page

DateOctober 3, 2026

VenueDodger Stadium

ATL 33%

LAD 67%

Pick rating

🥇 Gold Pick

Requires at least 55% selected-outcome probability, +1.5% EV and a LeaderScore of 10.

Pregame Pick %

The estimated chance of the selected result.

Moneyline

The last pregame price for that result. Compare it with the pick's probability to understand value.

Profit $100

Net profit if a $100 stake wins at that price; a loss would cost the $100 stake.

EV (Expected Value)

Estimated average net return per $100 from the pick's probability and moneyline. Positive EV means the price is favorable under this estimate; negative EV means it is not.

Outcome lead

Up to 15 points for the probability gap over the next most likely result. Near zero means the outcomes are close; a higher number means a clearer pick.

LeaderScore

EV% plus Outcome lead. Higher scores appear first in Picks. A negative score means unfavorable EV outweighs the outcome lead; it does not mean the pick cannot win.

LAD 67%

Moneyline-212

Profit $100$47.17

EV-1.40%

Outcome lead8.50

LeaderScore7.10

Los Angeles has the stronger full-game profile, with a substantial recent run differential and an offense producing an .805 OPS over its last 28 days. Tarik Skubal is a major matchup advantage: over four recent starts he posted a 2.051 ERA, a 0.873 WHIP, and averaged more than six innings. The Dodgers also have the home setting. Atlanta is not an easy out; it is 2-1 in the postseason, scoring 14 runs while allowing nine. Still, its two blown saves in that three-game stretch are a concern if the game is close late. Atlanta’s playoff momentum keeps the upset plausible, but the starting-pitching edge and Los Angeles’s recent performance make the Dodgers the likelier winner.

Team Form

2026 · Recent Games · Postseason

Atlanta Braves

L W L W L W L L W L

Los Angeles Dodgers

W W W W L L W W W W

Key Stats

2026 · Postseason

Atlanta Braves

.206

AVG

.308

OBP

.697

OPS

3.5

ERA

1.08

WHIP

4.25

R/G

8.5

K/9

Los Angeles Dodgers

These stats describe 2026 · Postseason. Per-game values are averages; totals cover that period.

AVG
Hits divided by at-bats. Higher means more hits per at-bat.

OBP
Times reaching base by a hit, walk or hit-by-pitch divided by at-bats, walks, hit-by-pitches and sacrifice flies. Higher means reaching base more often.

OPS
On-base percentage plus slugging percentage. Higher means stronger combined on-base production and power.

HR
Total home runs in this period.

ERA
Earned runs allowed per nine innings pitched. Lower means fewer earned runs allowed.

WHIP
Walks plus hits allowed per inning pitched. Lower means fewer of these baserunners allowed.

R/G
Runs scored per game. Higher means more scoring.

K/9
Pitching strikeouts per nine innings. Higher means more strikeouts at the same pitching workload.

.250

AVG

.314

OBP

.846

OPS

ERA

0.78

WHIP

R/G

K/9

Season Context

2026 · Postseason

Atlanta Braves

.389

SLG

100.0%

Fielding %

0.75

Run Diff

88.27

Exit Velocity

43.5%

Hard-Hit %

Los Angeles Dodgers

These measures describe 2026 · Postseason. Compare like periods; they are sporting measures, not predicted outcomes.

SLG
Total bases per at-bat. Higher means more power.

Fielding %
Putouts plus assists divided by fielding chances. Higher means fewer errors per chance.

Run Differential
Runs scored minus runs allowed per game. Positive means the team outscores opponents.

Exit Velocity
Average speed in mph of measured balls in play. Higher speeds describe harder contact, not guaranteed hits.

Hard-Hit %
Share of measured balls in play hit at least 95 mph. Higher percentages mean more hard contact.

.531

SLG

100.0%

Fielding %

Run Diff

Key Players

2026 · Postseason

Atlanta Braves

1.529OPS

1.429OPS

.908OPS

3.52ERA

Los Angeles Dodgers

1.750OPS

1.750OPS

1.250OPS

Boxscore

Scoring by period

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
ATL	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	3
LAD	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	—	5

Team stats

ATL Stat LAD

3 R 5

4 H 8

0 E 0

2 HR 3

3 BB 3

9 SO 9

8 LOB 9

0 SB 1

5 ER 3

0 DP 0

ATL

Atlanta Braves

Batting

Atlanta Braves Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P
Drake Baldwin DH Starter	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	17
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF Starter	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	18
Ozzie Albies 2B Starter	1-3	3	1	1	2	1	1	0	15
Matt Olson 1B Starter	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	16
Michael Harris II CF Starter	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	12
Mauricio Dubon SS Starter	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	16
Austin Riley 3B Starter	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	20
Sean Murphy C Starter	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	0	1	15
Ha-Seong Kim SS Starter	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	11
Lane Thomas LF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	6

Pitching

Atlanta Braves Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	PC
Dylan Dodd P Starter	3.0	2	0	0	0	4	0	47-30	47
Victor Mederos P	0.1	2	2	2	1	0	1	11-4	11
AJ Smith-Shawver P	2.2	3	3	3	2	2	2	53-29	53
Brent Suter P	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	0	33-21	33

LAD

Los Angeles Dodgers

Batting

Los Angeles Dodgers Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P
Mookie Betts SS Starter	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	1	19
Shohei Ohtani DH Starter	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	15
Will Smith C Starter	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	15
Freddie Freeman 1B Starter	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	15
Teoscar Hernandez LF Starter	2-4	4	2	2	2	1	0	2	17
Kyle Tucker RF Starter	2-4	4	1	2	2	1	0	2	14
Andy Pages CF Starter	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3	21
Max Muncy 3B Starter	1-4	4	1	1	1	1	0	0	16
Tommy Edman 2B Starter	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	12
Enrique Hernandez LF	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Pitching

Los Angeles Dodgers Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	PC
Tarik Skubal P Starter	6.0	2	1	1	2	7	1	94-62	94
Brock Stewart P	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	13-8	13
Alex Vesia P	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	15-10	15
Tanner Scott P	0.2	2	2	2	0	0	1	12-9	12
Evan Phillips P	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	12-8	12

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Atlanta Braves

Los Angeles Dodgers

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