Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox

Final

MLB

CLE Team page

9 — 5

CHW Team page

DateOctober 8, 2026

VenueRate Field

CLE 52%

CHW 48%

Pick rating

🥇 Gold Pick

Requires at least 55% selected-outcome probability, +1.5% EV and a LeaderScore of 10.

Pregame Pick %

The estimated chance of the selected result.

Moneyline

The last pregame price for that result. Compare it with the pick's probability to understand value.

Profit $100

Net profit if a $100 stake wins at that price; a loss would cost the $100 stake.

EV (Expected Value)

Estimated average net return per $100 from the pick's probability and moneyline. Positive EV means the price is favorable under this estimate; negative EV means it is not.

Outcome lead

Up to 15 points for the probability gap over the next most likely result. Near zero means the outcomes are close; a higher number means a clearer pick.

LeaderScore

EV% plus Outcome lead. Higher scores appear first in Picks. A negative score means unfavorable EV outweighs the outcome lead; it does not mean the pick cannot win.

CLE 52%

Moneyline-115

Profit $100$86.96

EV-2.78%

Outcome lead1.00

LeaderScore-1.78

This looks close, with a narrow lean to Cleveland. Parker Messick has been a relatively steady rotation option lately, posting a 2.79 ERA across 19⅓ innings in his last four regular-season starts; Cleveland’s bullpen has also logged a 2.93 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over the past month. The Guardians’ 9-3 win in the previous game gives them an immediate lift, though their postseason offense has otherwise been quiet. Chicago has home-field advantage and the stronger regular-season scoring rate, at 4.81 runs per game, while Hagen Smith’s recent 0.00 ERA is encouraging. But Smith’s short recent outings and command risk make it harder to project deep coverage from him. With both teams’ late-inning arms and overall form capable of deciding it, Cleveland gets only a slight full-game edge.

Team Form

2026 · Recent Games · Postseason

Cleveland Guardians

W W L L L W W W L W

Chicago White Sox

L L W W W W W L W W

Key Stats

2026 · Postseason

Cleveland Guardians

.214

AVG

.344

OBP

.687

OPS

3.75

ERA

1.25

WHIP

5.25

R/G

13.5

K/9

Chicago White Sox

These stats describe 2026 · Postseason. Per-game values are averages; totals cover that period.

AVG
Hits divided by at-bats. Higher means more hits per at-bat.

OBP
Times reaching base by a hit, walk or hit-by-pitch divided by at-bats, walks, hit-by-pitches and sacrifice flies. Higher means reaching base more often.

OPS
On-base percentage plus slugging percentage. Higher means stronger combined on-base production and power.

HR
Total home runs in this period.

ERA
Earned runs allowed per nine innings pitched. Lower means fewer earned runs allowed.

WHIP
Walks plus hits allowed per inning pitched. Lower means fewer of these baserunners allowed.

R/G
Runs scored per game. Higher means more scoring.

K/9
Pitching strikeouts per nine innings. Higher means more strikeouts at the same pitching workload.

.228

AVG

.335

OBP

.660

OPS

4.17

ERA

1.24

WHIP

4.67

R/G

8.67

K/9

Season Context

2026 · Postseason

Cleveland Guardians

.344

SLG

99.3%

Fielding %

1.5

Run Diff

88.23

Exit Velocity

37.7%

Hard-Hit %

Chicago White Sox

These measures describe 2026 · Postseason. Compare like periods; they are sporting measures, not predicted outcomes.

SLG
Total bases per at-bat. Higher means more power.

Fielding %
Putouts plus assists divided by fielding chances. Higher means fewer errors per chance.

Run Differential
Runs scored minus runs allowed per game. Positive means the team outscores opponents.

Exit Velocity
Average speed in mph of measured balls in play. Higher speeds describe harder contact, not guaranteed hits.

Hard-Hit %
Share of measured balls in play hit at least 95 mph. Higher percentages mean more hard contact.

.325

SLG

99.1%

Fielding %

0.17

Run Diff

89.76

Exit Velocity

38.5%

Hard-Hit %

Key Players

2026 · Postseason

Cleveland Guardians

1.500OPS

1.128OPS

1.056OPS

Chicago White Sox

.965OPS

.865OPS

.833OPS

4.7ERA

Boxscore

Scoring by period

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
CLE	0	0	0	0	3	6	0	0	0	9
CHW	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	1	5

Team stats

CLE Stat CHW

9 R 5

10 H 8

0 E 0

2 HR 1

7 BB 8

3 SO 12

13 LOB 22

1 SB 2

5 ER 9

0 DP 0

CLE