Requires at least 55% selected-outcome probability, +1.5% EV and a LeaderScore of 10.
Pregame Pick %
The estimated chance of the selected result.
Moneyline
The last pregame price for that result. Compare it with the pick's probability to understand value.
Profit $100
Net profit if a $100 stake wins at that price; a loss would cost the $100 stake.
EV (Expected Value)
Estimated average net return per $100 from the pick's probability and moneyline. Positive EV means the price is favorable under this estimate; negative EV means it is not.
Outcome lead
Up to 15 points for the probability gap over the next most likely result. Near zero means the outcomes are close; a higher number means a clearer pick.
LeaderScore
EV% plus Outcome lead. Higher scores appear first in Picks. A negative score means unfavorable EV outweighs the outcome lead; it does not mean the pick cannot win.
HOU 38%
Moneyline+230
Profit $100$230.00
EV+25.40%
Outcome lead1.25
LeaderScore26.65
Houston gets a slight edge because its season balance has been much stronger: HOU has six wins and conceded nine goals in 13, whereas MIN has only one win and conceded 27 in 12. However, Minnesota's attack is more productive at 22 goals and 1.83 per game, while its home setting offers a meaningful counterweight. Both teams are arriving in poor form: Houston is winless in its last three with two goals scored, while Minnesota has lost all three recent games and allowed ten. Houston's lower season goals-against rate provides the clearest edge, but Minnesota's scoring ceiling and home field make the outcomes close. A draw is quite plausible, and neither side merits a confident selection.
These stats describe 2026 · Regular Season. Per-game values are averages; totals cover that period.
GOALS/G Goals scored per game over 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties are excluded. Higher means more scoring.
GA/G Goals allowed per game over 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties are excluded. Lower means fewer goals conceded.
SHOTS/G Shots per game across the full match, including extra time when played. Higher means more shooting volume.
SOT/G Shots on target per game across the full match, including extra time when played. Higher means more attempts on target.
SHOT ACCURACY% Shots on target divided by total shots across the full match. Higher means more accurate shooting.
POSSESSION % Average possession percentage across full matches. Above 50% means more possession than opponents on average; it does not by itself mean better chances.
PASS % Completed passes divided by attempted passes across full matches. Higher means more accurate passing.
CORNERS/G Corner kicks per game across full matches. Higher means more corner opportunities.
1.83
GOALS/G
2.25
GA/G
13.92
SHOTS/G
5.33
SOT/G
38.3%
SHOT ACCURACY%
45.1%
POSSESSION %
80.8%
PASS %
5.67
CORNERS/G
Season Context
2026 · Regular Season
Houston Dynamo FC
0.92
Shot Differential
Minnesota United FC
?
These measures describe 2026 · Regular Season. Compare like periods; they are sporting measures, not predicted outcomes.
Shot Differential Shots on target minus opponents’ shots on target per game. Positive means more shots on target.
