Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Final

MLB

ATL Team page

3 — 2

LAD Team page

DateOctober 4, 2026

VenueDodger Stadium

ATL 38%

LAD 62%

Pick rating

🥇 Gold Pick

Requires at least 55% selected-outcome probability, +1.5% EV and a LeaderScore of 10.

Pregame Pick %

The estimated chance of the selected result.

Moneyline

The last pregame price for that result. Compare it with the pick's probability to understand value.

Profit $100

Net profit if a $100 stake wins at that price; a loss would cost the $100 stake.

EV (Expected Value)

Estimated average net return per $100 from the pick's probability and moneyline. Positive EV means the price is favorable under this estimate; negative EV means it is not.

Outcome lead

Up to 15 points for the probability gap over the next most likely result. Near zero means the outcomes are close; a higher number means a clearer pick.

LeaderScore

EV% plus Outcome lead. Higher scores appear first in Picks. A negative score means unfavorable EV outweighs the outcome lead; it does not mean the pick cannot win.

LAD 62%

Moneyline-212

Profit $100$47.17

EV-8.75%

Outcome lead6.00

LeaderScore-2.75

Los Angeles is the stronger full-game side, with home field and a clear recent performance edge. The Dodgers went 15-5, scoring 5.15 runs per game and allowing 2.60 across their last 20 regular-season games. Their bullpen also had a 1.64 ERA over the past week, while Blake Snell’s recent 1.69 ERA is encouraging. The caveat is that he averaged only 3⅔ innings per start over three outings, so Los Angeles may need meaningful relief coverage. Atlanta has been competitive, with a 2-2 postseason record and a +3 run differential, but its relievers posted a 5.30 ERA and blew two saves over the past week. If Snell provides a solid start, the Dodgers’ stronger recent run production and more reliable bullpen give them the advantage, though Atlanta’s postseason results argue against treating this as a mismatch.

Team Form

2026 · Recent Games · Postseason

Atlanta Braves

W L W L W L W L L W

Los Angeles Dodgers

L W W W W L L W W W

Key Stats

2026 · Postseason

Atlanta Braves

.204

AVG

.323

OBP

.692

OPS

3.2

ERA

1.07

WHIP

R/G

8.6

K/9

Los Angeles Dodgers

These stats describe 2026 · Postseason. Per-game values are averages; totals cover that period.

AVG
Hits divided by at-bats. Higher means more hits per at-bat.

OBP
Times reaching base by a hit, walk or hit-by-pitch divided by at-bats, walks, hit-by-pitches and sacrifice flies. Higher means reaching base more often.

OPS
On-base percentage plus slugging percentage. Higher means stronger combined on-base production and power.

HR
Total home runs in this period.

ERA
Earned runs allowed per nine innings pitched. Lower means fewer earned runs allowed.

WHIP
Walks plus hits allowed per inning pitched. Lower means fewer of these baserunners allowed.

R/G
Runs scored per game. Higher means more scoring.

K/9
Pitching strikeouts per nine innings. Higher means more strikeouts at the same pitching workload.

.215

AVG

.282

OBP

.743

OPS

ERA

1.17

WHIP

3.5

R/G

9.5

K/9

Season Context

2026 · Postseason

Atlanta Braves

.369

SLG

100.0%

Fielding %

0.8

Run Diff

90.77

Exit Velocity

44.4%

Hard-Hit %

Los Angeles Dodgers

These measures describe 2026 · Postseason. Compare like periods; they are sporting measures, not predicted outcomes.

SLG
Total bases per at-bat. Higher means more power.

Fielding %
Putouts plus assists divided by fielding chances. Higher means fewer errors per chance.

Run Differential
Runs scored minus runs allowed per game. Positive means the team outscores opponents.

Exit Velocity
Average speed in mph of measured balls in play. Higher speeds describe harder contact, not guaranteed hits.

Hard-Hit %
Share of measured balls in play hit at least 95 mph. Higher percentages mean more hard contact.

.462

SLG

100.0%

Fielding %

0.5

Run Diff

93.06

Exit Velocity

52.2%

Hard-Hit %

Key Players

2026 · Postseason

Atlanta Braves

1.302OPS

1.129OPS

1.205OPS

Los Angeles Dodgers

3.000OPS

1.357OPS

1.429OPS

Boxscore

Scoring by period

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
ATL	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	3
LAD	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	2

Team stats

ATL Stat LAD

3 R 2

6 H 6

0 E 0

0 HR 2

8 BB 3

10 SO 9

18 LOB 18

1 SB 0

2 ER 3

0 DP 0

ATL

Atlanta Braves

Batting

Atlanta Braves Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	#P
Drake Baldwin C Starter	0-2	2	0	0	0	3	0	23
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF Starter	1-5	5	1	1	0	0	1	20
Matt Olson 1B Starter	1-4	4	1	1	0	1	2	18
Ozzie Albies 2B Starter	0-4	4	0	0	0	1	1	28
Michael Harris II CF Starter	3-5	5	1	3	1	0	0	24
Mauricio Dubon SS Starter	1-3	3	0	1	1	1	2	17
Sean Murphy DH Starter	0-1	1	0	0	0	1	1	9
Austin Riley 3B Starter	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	19
Lane Thomas LF Starter	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	9
Rowdy Tellez DH	0-1	1	0	0	0	1	0	9
Brewer Hicklen DH	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mike Yastrzemski LF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	6

Pitching

Atlanta Braves Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	PC
Ray Kerr P Starter	2.2	2	0	0	1	4	0	42-24	42
Grant Holmes P	0.2	2	1	1	1	0	1	17-10	17
Dylan Lee P	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	0	14-7	14
Robert Suarez P	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	15-9	15
Didier Fuentes P	3.2	1	1	1	0	3	1	47-30	47
Raisel Iglesias P	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3-2	3

LAD

Los Angeles Dodgers

Batting

Los Angeles Dodgers Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P
Mookie Betts SS Starter	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	15
Shohei Ohtani DH Starter	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2	19
Will Smith C Starter	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	17
Freddie Freeman 1B Starter	2-4	4	1	2	1	1	0	1	13
Teoscar Hernandez LF Starter	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	14
Kyle Tucker RF Starter	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	13
Andy Pages CF Starter	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	14
Miguel Rojas 3B Starter	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	6
Tommy Edman 2B Starter	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
Max Muncy 3B	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	0	1	18
Josue De Paula PH	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3

Pitching

Los Angeles Dodgers Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC-ST	PC
Blake Snell P Starter	3.2	3	1	1	5	5	90-47	90
Brock Stewart P	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2-2	2
Kris Bubic P	0.2	1	1	1	1	0	17-10	17
Evan Phillips P	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4-3	4
Edwin Diaz P	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12-8	12
Edgardo Henriquez P	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	21-14	21
Roki Sasaki P	2.0	0	0	0	2	1	36-18	36

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Atlanta Braves

Los Angeles Dodgers

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