Requires at least 55% selected-outcome probability, +1.5% EV and a LeaderScore of 10.
Pregame Pick %
The estimated chance of the selected result.
Moneyline
The last pregame price for that result. Compare it with the pick's probability to understand value.
Profit $100
Net profit if a $100 stake wins at that price; a loss would cost the $100 stake.
EV (Expected Value)
Estimated average net return per $100 from the pick's probability and moneyline. Positive EV means the price is favorable under this estimate; negative EV means it is not.
Outcome lead
Up to 15 points for the probability gap over the next most likely result. Near zero means the outcomes are close; a higher number means a clearer pick.
LeaderScore
EV% plus Outcome lead. Higher scores appear first in Picks. A negative score means unfavorable EV outweighs the outcome lead; it does not mean the pick cannot win.
TOR 39%
Moneyline-105
Profit $100$95.24
EV-23.86%
Outcome lead1.75
LeaderScore-22.11
Toronto earns only a slight edge from home advantage and the stronger season profile: it has three wins and six draws in 13 league games, compared with Montréal’s two wins and four draws, and has scored more often (1.31 versus 0.92 goals per game). But the recent warning signs are substantial: Toronto has lost all three of its latest matches, scoring once and conceding eight. Montréal’s recent overall results are also weak, and its away record over the last 56 days—one win, three defeats, and 11 goals allowed—suggests it may struggle to contain Toronto. That makes the home side marginally more likely to win, though neither team has been dependable defensively and the draw remains very live. This looks close rather than a decisive advantage for either side.
These stats describe 2026 · Regular Season. Per-game values are averages; totals cover that period.
GOALS/G Goals scored per game over 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties are excluded. Higher means more scoring.
GA/G Goals allowed per game over 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties are excluded. Lower means fewer goals conceded.
SHOTS/G Shots per game across the full match, including extra time when played. Higher means more shooting volume.
SOT/G Shots on target per game across the full match, including extra time when played. Higher means more attempts on target.
SHOT ACCURACY% Shots on target divided by total shots across the full match. Higher means more accurate shooting.
POSSESSION % Average possession percentage across full matches. Above 50% means more possession than opponents on average; it does not by itself mean better chances.
PASS % Completed passes divided by attempted passes across full matches. Higher means more accurate passing.
CORNERS/G Corner kicks per game across full matches. Higher means more corner opportunities.
1.31
GOALS/G
1.69
GA/G
12.31
SHOTS/G
4.08
SOT/G
33.1%
SHOT ACCURACY%
42.4%
POSSESSION %
81.4%
PASS %
4.08
CORNERS/G
Season Context
2026 · Regular Season
CF Montréal
0.31
Shot Differential
Toronto FC
?
These measures describe 2026 · Regular Season. Compare like periods; they are sporting measures, not predicted outcomes.
Shot Differential Shots on target minus opponents’ shots on target per game. Positive means more shots on target.
